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Saturday, January 16, 2010

Virtual Worlds - Future Careers - Future Fortunes

The following article prompted this article:  http://bit.ly/7Lrpdv

The link talks about how OpenSim may be led by and for the power users.  It has to be!  It is the opensource viewers that need to be influxed with HCI and Usability...though the features contained therein still need to be increased (for the power users).  It is a catch22 of sorts.  Viewers take hold, then work stops.  Yes viewers are OpenSource, however, the interest in expanding the capabilities of the viewers soon wanes.  Once again, the Hippo viewer is mentioned.  It was our favorite (but add in the features of meerkat). Where are you Hippo?  Well, where are you anyone?

As the virtual reality (worlds) arena continues to take hold, a wealth of new opportunites begin to surface.  Having seen technologies flourish, some of the major ones (TCP/IP, the Internet, Internet2, and more) follow the same pattern. 

  • A bunch of researchers and educators latch on to a technology (or the government).
  • The rest of the research / education community hop on the wagon
  • Large corporations take interest, and invest
  • Many large corporations seize the opportunity
  • Small to medium enterprises begin to latch on and the "me too" era begins
  • The "world" catches on
  • And so forth..over and over again.
Right now, it is at the large corporation stage, and moving rapidly forward. Hosted metaverses are sprining up rapidly.  In fact, private metaverses in 2009 have realized a 29% growth while Linden Labs has seen a 6% growth in Metaverse expansion: http://bit.ly/4J4SbC This trend will contiue rapidly!

Of course, it is important to focus on the end user experience, yet the server software (opensim) needs to be rich and very scaleable (unlike the code of Second Life).

As OpenSim / Second Life / whatever technologies begin to emerge, new opportunities also emerge.  Not in any order, they are:

  • Consultants / Architects - Virtual world consultants and architects will flourish. It will be costly, but new users / companies can save significant ampunts off the steep learning curve.
  • Content Consultants - educators, health care, non-profit, and the list goes on to all sectors.
  • Content Designers / Programmers (or scripters) - not everyone can create, nor does everyone know how to create.  Nor does everyone want to.  Content designers and programmers will flourish.  They will be similar to the web content designers and programmers.  They will exist from both an artistic to a very technical breed.  Those with the combination of skills will flourish. This area is the main area that is stagnating the proliferation of the technology as the learning curve is steep (as in the case of K-12 schools that just do not have the resources). Not everyone has the time to take the leap (an yes, some do not have the ability).
  • VWSP - the virtual world service providers will emerge.  They will, for a fee of some sort, tie in all of the disparate grids that exists from homes, to companies.  A wealth of metaverses will be created. This will be quite similar but far more functional than:  http://www.osgrid.org/.
  • Individul Linden Lab type companies.  Thhey will provide space, and will host indiviual users and organizations that do not have the capacity to have their own servers. This is similar to the "land barons" that exist in Second Life (only larger is size and capacity).  Individual companies now exist that already do this:  http://www.ractiongrid.com/.  These companies will be numerous.  These compaies will also have connections to the metaverse through hypergrid.
  • In world E-Commerce - right, those that sell virtual goods for the use of residents. In Second Life, only about 10% of these companies break even.  Even fewer make significant revenue.  SOme big players will participate in this arena.
  • Software Companies - those that provide add-on modules to the exisiting infrastructure.,
  • Full blown commercial E-Commerce - yup the branded items that can be purchaed and sent to the purchaser in the same manner as commercial web sites do today.
  • Social network integrators - a new era of social networking / social media arises.
  • Specialized Attorneys - yeah..but needed to deal with all the Intellectual Property issues.
  • Network / Security Architects - security is still a weak point in the whole scheme.
  • Endless others!
To many folks expect development to take the direction of the traditional Second Life where the world is run by residents.  This will still persist but will take a back seat to the other items mentioned above.  Even Linden Labs is redirecting its attention in line with the above mentioned opportunities.  They should.  Very small amounts of the revenue is derived from resident premium payments and other activiteis.  Linden Labs / Second Life needs to survive in order for the technology to survive in the short-term future. But Linden Labs cannot be the only player.  Hence OpenSim.  Keep the OpenSource work going!!!

So to say that OpenSim development is favoring Power Users...who knows...but it needs to...!!!! The focus on megaregions was mentioned in the article.  Megaregions are critical!  Avatar concurrency is critical!  Hypergrid is even more critical! Enhaced features are warranted.  Sure, not everyone can run a server.  Hence the multitude of new careers mentioned above.